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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."