🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans rising together. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still